National League 2026/27: our predicted 1 to 24

Southend know this particular ache rather too well. Build a side good enough to reach the play-offs, carry thousands of supporters into spring with genuine hope, then watch the route back to the EFL close by a single goal. Sixth place, 81 points and a goal difference of plus 36 made 2025/26 a strong season by any sensible measure. The 1-0 eliminator defeat at Scunthorpe made it feel considerably less satisfying on the journey home.

That result did not erase the wider trend. Southend have now reached the play-offs in consecutive seasons, after an underlying 75-point campaign in 2023/24 was reduced by a ten-point deduction. This is no sudden leap from the middle of the pack. The club has spent three years assembling the competitive habits of a promotion side, and the 2026 FA Trophy added a proper Wembley reward to the evidence. Fourth is therefore a prediction rooted in the floor Southend have already established, not the optimism that naturally arrives with every clean fixture list.

The boldest change is in the dugout. Kieron Dyer has taken his first senior managerial job on a two-year agreement, replacing Kevin Maher after those two play-off qualifications. His coaching background gives the appointment credibility, but there is no senior results record to hide behind when August becomes awkward. Southend are asking a new head coach to learn the job while reshaping a team that was already close. That could be inspired. It is also the clearest reason we have stopped short of putting the Blues in the automatic-promotion slot.

The midfield rebuild carries serious intent. Darren Oldaker captained Chesterfield to a National League title, while Anthony Hartigan was part of Barnet’s championship side. Josh Popoola arrives after a season of more than 20 goal contributions for Maidenhead, and the younger additions give Dyer options and athleticism around the established group. There is a coherent idea here: add players who understand the division, surround them with energy, and give a first-time manager enough technical quality to impose himself.

It is not a free upgrade. Gus Scott-Morriss leaves after a Team of the Season campaign, taking a rare combination of wing-back defending and double-figure league-goal threat with him. Noor Husin and several experienced squad players have also gone. Ben Goodliffe, Harry Taylor, Harry Boyes and Oli Coker preserve useful continuity, but the right side, central midfield and senior scoring responsibilities all need to settle into a new shape. Eight confirmed arrivals can refresh a dressing room. They can also make the first six weeks feel like an extended introduction.

Preseason had begun to offer a little more light by 20 July. Behind-closed-doors defeats to Ipswich and Cambridge were workload exercises with limited forecasting value. The public 1-1 draw against West Ham at Roots Hall felt more informative: a competitive performance against senior Championship opposition, played in front of 10,462 people. Northampton, Leyton Orient and Aveley were still to come, giving Dyer valuable time to find combinations before the opening trip to Altrincham.

The scale around the team remains one of Southend’s great advantages. COSU’s takeover ended the old ownership crisis and committed the club to Roots Hall. A record 5,315 season tickets sold by 13 July shows how much belief and habit still live in the support. Those numbers create atmosphere, revenue and standards. They do not solve everything. The reported operational restructure and historic losses are reminders that recovery off the pitch is a process rather than a single announcement.

So why fourth? Boreham Wood and Scunthorpe offer stronger football continuity, while Carlisle carry the platform of a 95-point season despite their own managerial change. Southend sit immediately behind them because the recent record, recruitment and support are too substantial to treat as merely hopeful. The ceiling is the title race if Dyer’s ideas land quickly and the lost output is replaced. The more cautious outcome is another play-off campaign shaped by early integration and the familiar search for enough goals when matches tighten.

There is pressure in that judgement, but there should be. Southend are no longer rebuilding from the wreckage of the old crisis. They are a well-supported, recent play-off side choosing a new manager and rebuilding a near-miss midfield. Fourth says the Blues should be in the promotion conversation from the start. It also says the final step will demand more than a handsome squad list and another stirring afternoon at Roots Hall. This division has taught us that lesson often enough.

The best title case in this division is not the loudest rebuild. It is the side that collected 90 points, reached Wembley and chose to keep most of what worked. Boreham Wood have made continuity feel aggressive, which is why they sit first in our prediction.

Luke Garrard’s return has already produced promotion from National League South and a fourth-place finish back at Step 1. The promotion final ended painfully, with a two-goal lead disappearing before Rochdale won on penalties, but the club’s response was telling: Garrard signed a fresh three-year deal. Fourteen contracted players remained on the retained list, including Zak Brunt, Regan Booty, Chris Bush, Callum Reynolds and Matt Rush. James Clarke then extended through 2028 after a run featuring six clean sheets across his final league and play-off starts.

This is not stasis. Luca Gunter arrives on loan from Tottenham as a possible answer to the goalkeeping vacancy, while Oliver Bainbridge, Tarryn Allarakhia and Tylor Golden add useful range. Nathan Ashmore’s departure removes a long-serving senior presence, and Cameron Coxe, Jack Payne, Charles Clayden and Joe Newton are among other notable exits. The goalkeeper transition is the sharpest risk in an otherwise measured summer.

Preseason has offered the right kind of noise without proving too much. Beating Watford 2-1 and drawing 1-1 with an Arsenal XI sit beside an 8-2 win at Step 3 Real Bedford. Eleven goals in three games speak to attacking sharpness; four conceded, and the mixed standard of opposition, stop it becoming a grand defensive statement.

Our first-place call rests on the shape of Boreham Wood’s last two years. This is a team used to high-stakes matches, led by a manager whose methods are embedded and strengthened without being dismantled. Scunthorpe, Carlisle and Southend all have compelling arguments. None quite matches this blend of recent output and present continuity.

There is still a difficult final step to take. Boreham Wood have lost promotion finals before, and last May will linger. Yet the evidence suggests a side equipped to turn that hurt into points rather than baggage. We have them going one place and one round better: champions.

Scunthorpe United have stopped looking like a recovery story and started looking like champions in waiting. Second in National League North, promoted through the play-offs, then fifth at the first attempt back at Step 1: the line under Andy Butler keeps moving upwards. We have them second because only Boreham Wood offer a slightly cleaner continuity case.

Butler is the anchor. Promoted from the coaching staff in May 2024, he has delivered promotion and a National League play-off place, earning a deal through 2028. That matters in a division where ambitious clubs often reset at the first wobble. Assistant John Schofield remains too, giving the Iron a football structure that already knows how to turn pressure into progress.

The summer has still been active. Luke Brennan, Boston’s player of the season Jordan Richards, Callum Howe, Reagan Ogle and Kyle Hurst add proven senior quality. Jacob Butterfield returns as a player-coach, while James Gale and Harry Shipstone broaden the attacking options. Gale scoring during an unbeaten first four friendlies is a useful early sign, even allowing for the lower-level opposition in the opening wins.

There are meaningful losses. Callum Roberts declined a contract offer, Oli Ewing moved to Forest Green and the released list included Max Brogan and several experienced teammates. Yet the retained group is substantial. Louis Jones is secured through 2028, Ross Barrows, Will Evans, Tyler Denton and Maison Campbell renewed, and nine more established squad members were already contracted.

Off the pitch, the post-2023 rescue remains part of the context. A four-owner structure, a refurbished Attis Arena pitch and renewed commercial work show stability returning, while the club’s own emphasis on sustainability is a reminder that every improvement must be paid for responsibly.

The market had Scunthorpe at 8/1 for promotion, and it is easy to understand why. This is a side with trajectory, a trusted manager and recruitment across every line. First is firmly within touching distance. Our narrow reservation is that Boreham Wood’s 90-point season and almost untouched core offer fractionally fewer integration questions. If Butler’s new midfield settles quickly, second may prove the conservative call.

Ninety-five points should make Carlisle feel like an automatic promotion pick. It does not quite, because Rob Elliot has inherited somebody else’s near miss and must turn an excellent platform into his own team without losing its force. That is the tension at Brunton Park: last season’s third place is the strongest directly relevant evidence among the leading pack, but a head-coach change asks a big side to learn a new voice at exactly the moment patience is thinnest.

Elliot is no speculative appointment. His Gateshead work included a sixth-place finish and an FA Trophy, then a return in which he helped rescue a side that had been 11 points adrift. Carlisle have also retained a substantial core. Regan Linney, the London Branch player of the season, remains under contract; Morgan Feeney and Georgie Kelly keep prominent squad numbers; and the list around them includes Luke Armstrong, Elliot Embleton, Cameron Harper and Callum Whelan. This is evolution, not demolition.

Five additions broaden the group, with Kenton Richardson and Brad Nicholson following Elliot from Gateshead and Archie Mair making his loan permanent. There are losses to absorb, notably Charlie Wyke and Aaron Hayden among 11 released players, plus returning loanees. Even so, the retained side of the ledger carries more weight than the departures. Carlisle are adjusting a contender, not assembling one from scratch.

Preseason has been encouraging, if unusually private. Carlisle beat Queen of the South without conceding, but withheld the score and line-ups; Georgie Kelly scored four. They then won 3-2 at Motherwell after trailing. A youth-heavy XI lost 5-0 at Workington, a result that tells us more about the calendar than the senior side. That youth result should not be smuggled into the senior record, just as the unpublished Queen of the South score should not be guessed.

The market makes Carlisle 11/10 favourites. We put them third. That is not disbelief in a 95-point squad, but respect for the continuity of Boreham Wood and Scunthorpe above them. New head coach, five additions and an interim chief-executive arrangement bring enough moving pieces to deny Carlisle top billing. Their floor should still be formidable, and another sustained promotion challenge is the natural expectation.

Forest Green’s most important summer number is not seven new signings or three friendly wins. It is £1.5 million, the income chairman Dale Vince says disappears in the club’s third National League season as parachute payments end. Rovers still look like a play-off side, but that financial drop is why we stop at fifth.

There remains a lot to like. Robbie Savage enters his second campaign with a squad that kept Kyle McAllister, Nick Haughton, Kairo Mitchell, Jayden Clarke and Ricardo Rees. That is a serious attacking base. Oli Ewing, James Berry and Bryan Ifeanyi add midfield and wide quality, Kyle Ajayi and Emeka Obi strengthen the defensive group, and Ethan Ross brings a senior goalkeeping option. Recruitment looks purposeful rather than panicked.

It needed to be. Sean Long, Ryan Inniss, Christian Doidge, Liam Sercombe and Tom Knowles were among eight released players. Six loans ended, captain Jordan Moore-Taylor and Harry Isted were later told they would not receive new deals, and Temi Babalola departed for Sutton. Retaining 23 contracted players initially sounded like deep continuity, but the subsequent movement removes more leadership and experience than that headline suggests.

Savage’s first season also demands a balanced reading. Seventh was respectable and the side’s attacking quality was plain, yet Forest Green slipped outside the play-offs after finishing third the year before. He now has familiarity with the level and a second summer to refine his ideas. He also carries the pressure that comes with a club openly prioritising an EFL return while cutting elsewhere.

July has been cheerful: a 3-1 win at Bishops Cleeve, an unpublished-score win behind closed doors at Slimbridge and a 2-1 victory over Merthyr. Three from three is welcome. None came against an EFL first team, and honesty requires us to leave the Slimbridge score blank, so the evidence remains a light positive rather than proof of lift-off.

Rovers belong near the leading pack. Their retained forwards can trouble anyone, the new arrivals have range and Savage has a full season’s experience of this division to draw upon. The reason they are fifth, not first, is the tension between promotion-level talent and a summer that has stripped experience while the budget environment tightens. Forest Green should be in the argument again; winning it looks a harder leap.

Hartlepool have not tiptoed into Lee Clark’s first summer. The club announced eleven senior recruits, although Will Harris’s registration remained disputed at the cutoff. Add thirteen releases, four loan returns and three friendly wins, and this is a full-volume reset at a club whose league position had already been improving: twelfth, eleventh, ninth. The attraction is obvious. Add aggressive recruitment to an upward line and sixth starts to look less like a flourish than a reasonable play-off claim.

Clark wants a fit, high-intensity side that presses and plays forward. Jordan Hugill offers experience at the point of attack; Jack Nolan, Brooklyn Ilunga, Corey McKeown and Chris Popov broaden the options around him. Nolan’s two second-half goals at Spennymoor followed wins over Seaton Carew and Redcar Athletic, giving the new group three victories from three. Friendly form is not currency in August, but the early buy-in appears real.

Some foundations remain. Max Kouogun, Jamie Miley and Nathan Sheron are under contract from last season’s side, while Luke Charman, Jack Hunter and Adam Smith agreed new terms. Gary Liddle stayed on the coaching staff and Chris Beech now leads recruitment within a clearer football-department structure. The Academy pathway has also produced four first professional deals. That internal route matters over a long season. This is not simply a trolley dash conducted above an empty cupboard.

The caution comes from scale and uncertainty. Thirteen senior players were released, so Clark’s style must be taught while combinations are still being introduced. Neo Eccleston and Liam Gibson were announced subject to registration approval. Most importantly, Will Harris cannot be counted as available. Hartlepool announced him from Halifax, but Halifax said it had exercised an option and still held his registration. That conflict remained unresolved at the cutoff.

The market makes Pools 9/4 second favourites. We stop at sixth because summer ambition and summer certainty are different things. Clark has a compelling plan but no competitive Hartlepool sample, and a heavily changed squad must sustain his intended intensity through winter as well as July. The improving baseline, retained spine and recruitment quality make the play-offs a fair expectation. The moving pieces, especially the Harris dispute, make automatic promotion too generous for now.

Worthing are the promoted side nobody should patronise. This is their first Step 1 season, but very little about the preparation feels like a first attempt. They arrive as champions, have moved into full-time football and are led by Adam Hinshelwood, who already knows both this club and the National League from taking York to second in 2024/25.

That managerial bridge matters. Hinshelwood returned in October, completed the title job and now has a contract running to 2028. Behind him sits a core that has learned through third, fourth and finally first-place finishes. Sam Packham, Sam Beard, Taylor Seymour, Bailey Smith and Joe Cook have all committed again. Those are not sentimental renewals: Packham supplied double-digit assists, Seymour finished with five clean sheets in 12 league games and Cook made the division’s team of the season.

The recruitment has the same purposeful feel. Southend supporters know the calm and intelligence Noor Husin can bring. Ashley Nathaniel-George adds National League experience, Tyrique Clarke arrives from Slough, Dom Hutchinson offers another option and Harrison Foulkes comes off an award-laden season at Dorking. There have been numerous exits, including Toby Byron’s move to Sutton and a substantial released list, but the players deliberately secured suggest the title-winning spine has survived.

Worthing’s wider direction supports the football case. Record sales, planned ground development and the full-time switch make this more than a brilliant part-time team being asked to hang on. The Sussex Transport Community Stadium should retain its energy while the weekday environment becomes more demanding.

July was almost pure development work: an academy-heavy win at Selsey and draws with Bournemouth’s under-21s and Frome. Nothing in those games proved National League readiness, but neither did it weaken the wider case.

We are less cautious, up to a point. Seventh is a bold forecast for debutants, but it follows the evidence: a mature climb, a retained champion core, targeted Step 1 additions and a manager who has recently succeeded here. The automatic places ask too much before Worthing have played a game at this level. A play-off chase does not. Their risk is novelty, not a lack of preparation.

Seventeen years after Simon Weaver took charge, relegation has given Harrogate their most awkward reset in a generation. That longevity matters more here than the neatness of an appointment date. A historical Cheltenham programme says Weaver became player-manager on 20 May 2009; a BBC profile says 21 May. No primary notice resolves the single day, so the honest version is simply that Weaver has been in charge since May 2009.

What is beyond dispute is the continuity. Weaver has lived every stage of Harrogate’s modern climb and now leads them back into the National League after League Two finishes of thirteenth, eighteenth and twenty-third. Relegation is poor evidence, but it came one level higher than this field. The manager knows the club, the ground and the people around him in a way no summer appointment could imitate.

The squad is less settled. Eight players were released and six loanees returned to parent clubs. Six permanent recruits, including Will McGowan, Morgan Williams and Rory Watson, have arrived to meet that loss. Warren Burrell remains after reaching 430 appearances by the end of 2024/25, George Thomson renewed, and goalkeeper Lucas Barnes also signed again. The retained experience should make a busy rebuild feel less anonymous. It also gives Weaver trusted voices when new roles and partnerships are still being learned.

Two friendlies brought two wins, 2-1 at Guiseley and 1-0 at Cleethorpes through Shawn McCoulsky. It is a small, lower-division sample, but it adds a useful note of competence. Off the pitch, the club reported record average league attendance, froze season-ticket prices and secured a stadium partnership which independent reporting says includes improvements to the Rothwell training base.

The market makes Harrogate 7/2 third favourites. Eighth is deliberately more cautious. Weaver’s continuity, stable infrastructure and permanent recruitment make a post-relegation collapse unlikely, while the higher-division correction keeps them above most of the middle order. Yet a declining three-year trajectory and considerable turnover do not vanish with a new fixture list. Harrogate should be organised, competitive and difficult to unsettle. Whether they possess enough fresh attacking quality for the play-offs remains the question we cannot answer yet.

Relegation usually leaves a club asking what survived. Barrow have chosen a more urgent question: how quickly can Adam Murray build the next side? Five managers, including interims, handled pieces of a miserable 2025/26, then Murray arrived fresh from taking Kidderminster up. He has won two promotions to this level in four years. That is exactly the sort of recent, practical know-how a relegated club needs, even if it does not erase a fall from eighth to sixteenth to twenty-fourth across three League Two seasons.

The rebuild is substantial. Nine players had arrived by the cutoff, among them Alex Reid, Kennedy Digie, Isaac Marriott, Olly Crankshaw and Paul Kalambayi. Some bring fifth-tier familiarity; Walker and Kalambayi also understand Murray’s methods from Kidderminster. Early evidence has been cheerful: three wins, six goals across the first two games, then a lively 4-3 victory over League One Mansfield. Friendlies are unreliable witnesses, but at least these ones have turned up smiling.

They needed to. Six players were released, five loanees returned, and further departures included Charlie McCann, Wyll Stanway and Isaac Fletcher. This is closer to a squad replacement than a tune-up. Ben Whitfield, Rekeem Harper and Danny Rose give the new group some recognisable anchors, while a broader contracted core prevents a total clean slate. Their early goals matter because they offer a useful thread between the relegated side and Murray’s new one.

There is also change away from matchday. Barrow moved their Manchester-area training operation to Curzon Ashton’s Tameside Stadium, citing dependable grass and artificial surfaces plus recovery facilities. Majority shareholder Tony Shearer has stepped back from daily involvement and resigned as a director while retaining his stake. Neither point predicts a Saturday result, but together they underline how much is being reset at once.

There is a credible play-off story here. We are cooler. Ninth respects the higher-division background, Murray’s excellent fit and an energetic start without pretending relegation disruption disappears at the National League door. If the many new relationships settle quickly, the top seven are within reach. Until then, just outside them feels the fairer call.

Barrow may make that caution look unnecessary.

At Tamworth, the most important summer signing is still the manager who arrived in 2022. Andy Peaks has taken the Lambs through two promotions and then delivered tenth and eleventh in the National League. New ownership, a new chief executive and a long list of fresh players make this a season of change, but Peaks gives the whole project a trusted football centre.

That record is why we have Tamworth tenth. Their rise has not been a one-season rush. The National League North title was followed by two secure top-half campaigns, each squeezing more from the group than bigger budgets might expect. Jas Singh enters his ninth season after 346 appearances, Dan Creaney remains after 115 club goals, and Jordan Cullinane-Liburd, Haydn Hollis, Luke Fairlamb and Ben Milnes preserve experience through the spine.

Around them, the scale of recruitment is striking. Eleven external additions are listed, plus seven academy scholars promoted onto professional terms. Kieren Donnelly arrives after scoring eight times in 15 appearances during Kidderminster’s promotion run. Jake Hutchinson brings a 24-goal title season, while Tom Parkes and Tyler Lyttle add experience from Hartlepool and Brackley. There is upside and depth, but also a considerable integration job.

The departure side cannot be described with the same confidence. Tamworth’s retained announcement named the ten players staying without publishing a released list. No names should be invented to fill that gap, so the net shape of the rebuild remains less certain than the incoming column suggests.

Preseason captured both sides of the forecast. Donnelly hit a hat-trick in a 4-2 win at Lichfield, Creaney and TJ Bramble beat Walton & Hersham, and Stoke City’s under-21s were beaten 3-1. Between those wins came a 5-0 loss behind closed doors at Port Vale, with four conceded before half-time. It was only a friendly, but it showed how abruptly a remodelled side can be punished by higher-level quality.

The new investment raises the ceiling. We trust Peaks and the recent league record, but stop at tenth because the new hierarchy and so many new relationships have not yet been tested together. Tamworth have earned the right to be expected in the top half. Staying there while changing so much would be another impressive step.

Jermain Defoe is the irresistible headline at Woking, but the better reason to take the Cards seriously is the line beneath it: 17th, then 15th, then tenth. The club has been moving in the right direction for three seasons. Defoe now gets the chance to turn a six-match introduction into a full campaign, with Paul Bracewell beside him and familiar coaching figures retained.

It is an exciting appointment and a projection. Defoe brings elite playing knowledge, academy experience at Tottenham and time as a player-coach at Rangers, but this is his first permanent senior management job. Woking’s eleventh-place forecast therefore rests as much on the squad’s trajectory as on the glamour of the new coach.

The attack has been rebuilt with a clear preference for output and athleticism. Liam Dulson scored 14 for Maidenhead last season. Ashley Clarke arrives from Bournemouth after 11 goals and ten assists on loan at AFC Totton. Josh Kelly has made his return permanent, Sean Adarkwa comes from Wealdstone, and Josh Ayres, Harrison Sohna and Zico Asare add youth and range. Clarke scoring at Sholing and Sohna striking against Portsmouth offered an encouraging first glimpse.

There is a cost to the refresh. Captain Harry Beautyman declined a new deal after 90 appearances and 25 goals. Six out-of-contract players left, three loans ended and Aaron Drewe’s talks concluded without agreement. Yet Will Jaaskelainen, Chin Okoli, Tariq Hinds, Caleb Richards and Aiden O’Brien were among those already secured, while Timi Odusina, Roy Syla, Jake Forster-Caskey and Tunji Akinola agreed terms.

A 2-1 win at Sholing and an entirely respectable 2-1 loss to Championship Portsmouth offered the first glimpse of the new attack. A new Surrey Sports Park training partnership gives the group a stronger weekly base, another quiet sign that Woking are trying to build beyond matchday.

Eleventh follows measured optimism. The improvement is real, the recruitment has logic and Defoe has serious support. A play-off push is possible if the rebuilt attack fires. Until a first-time manager shows he can guide a team through the grind of this division, just outside the top ten feels the sounder call.

Follow Billy Rowley’s recruitment trail and it keeps returning to Walton & Hersham. He has rebuilt almost every line, blending that familiar core with proven National League performers and ambitious lower-tier standouts. It is the division’s most interesting middle-order gamble, strong enough for 12th but too new for the play-off places.

Rowley arrived in November and signed through 2028. The club’s owner credits him with improving standards and stability, and the recruitment carries a clear managerial imprint. Mason Obeng, Johl Powell and goalkeeper Jos Barker all follow him from the Walton side that won Southern Premier South. That familiarity may shorten an otherwise demanding integration period.

The wider additions are impressive. Zain Westbrooke arrives after a strong loan with play-off semi-finalists Scunthorpe. Joe Haigh was Dagenham & Redbridge’s player of the season, Stephen Walker scored 18 league goals for Scarborough and five permanent defenders have joined. Southend supporters will watch Slavi Spasov with particular interest after his move for an undisclosed fee. Loick Ayina adds another defensive option on loan.

This is not a risk-free spending spree. Ten out-of-contract players left and eight loans ended. A total rebuild can produce a higher ceiling while removing the shared memory that gets teams through difficult weeks. Brett McGavin’s extension to 2028 is therefore especially important. With 83 appearances, nine goals and set-piece quality, he anchors a smaller retained group that also includes Jake Wannell, Luke McCormick and Ryan Jones.

The early returns were bright. Yeovil scored four at Melksham, came back from two down at Merthyr and beat Cardiff City’s under-21s. Walker scored in all three fixtures, while Obeng, McCormick and McGavin also contributed. It is preseason evidence, not a league sample, but it suggests the new attack has connected quickly.

The market placed Yeovil at 8/1 for promotion, a much stronger view than recent finishes of 18th and 16th would normally earn. We share the optimism about recruitment, not yet the conclusion. Rowley has limited Step 1 managerial evidence and must turn exceptional churn into a coherent side. Twelfth reflects real upward potential while respecting the work still required. If the July fluency survives August pressure, this forecast could look timid.

Halifax have spent three seasons making the top half look routine: seventh, sixth, eighth. The striking question is whether that habit belongs to the club or to the people who have left it. Adam Lakeland’s departure for Morecambe was unexpected, John McGrath has stepped up from consecutive National League North play-off campaigns with Buxton, and a large slice of the playing group has followed the old manager out of The Shay’s immediate picture.

There is no need to manufacture crisis. Sam Johnson, Shaun Hobson and Jay Turner-Cooke preserve an experienced spine, while seven arrivals give McGrath material to shape. Amari Morgan-Smith brings a recognisable focal point and Arian Allen arrives on loan from Stockport. Halifax have repeatedly found competitive sides without the division’s loudest budget, so the institutional case deserves real weight. The club’s habits are an asset in their own right.

The summer has nevertheless been busy enough to blur the view. Florent Hoti, Jack Jenkins, Nat Ford and several others left at contract end, four loanees returned, and Max Wright, Jamie Cooke, Will Smith, Jevon Mills and Adam Adetoro were among the subsequent exits. This is not a stable eighth-place squad adding two clever pieces.

Will Harris sits outside this forecast. Halifax say they exercised his one-year option and retain his registration; Hartlepool announced him as a signing. Until that contradiction is resolved, we count him for neither club. Anything tidier would be fiction.

Preseason has been equally untidy: two wins and three defeats, 15 conceded, a 6-1 loss to Bradford and a 3-2 win over Chesterfield. Heavy trialist use in the 4-3 defeat at Avro reduces the forecasting value, but the defensive noise cannot be ignored.

McGrath’s first task is to make a changing back line feel recognisably Halifax before that noise becomes habit.

Thirteenth is a vote for Halifax’s sturdy recent baseline and a warning about how many variables now surround it. McGrath is moving up a level and his reconstructed side may need time. A fourth consecutive top-eight finish would be thoroughly believable. So would a season spent just below the conversation, which is where we land.

Two promotions in three seasons have changed Daryl McMahon’s role at Hornchurch: he now owns part of the project he manages. McMahon has also been given a new three-year contract and eleven new players with serious fifth-tier or EFL experience. We expect the Urchins to survive comfortably in 14th, without mistaking that alignment for instant promotion readiness.

McMahon is the centre of the case. That climb has taken Hornchurch from the Isthmian Premier to a first National League campaign. The second promotion came through the play-offs after a second-place finish, and much of the attacking core remains: Henry Sandat, George Alexander, Angelo Balanta, Bobby Kelman, Dominic Poleon and Tom Wraight were all under contract. Wraight’s separate two-year deal adds another note of continuity.

Around that group, the club has recruited as if it understands exactly how hard the jump will be. Joe Kizzi, Tom Dallison, Jack Baldwin and Ryan Inniss bring senior defensive experience. Nathan Ferguson, Jack Powell and former Shrimpers forward Josh Walker strengthen the central and attacking options, while permanent deals for Arthur Nasta and Makai Welch convert known loanees into owned players. This is not a promoted squad hoping momentum alone will carry it.

There is a cost to such activity. Eleven arrivals still need roles, relationships and minutes, while eight players were listed to leave at contract end. The National League will punish a side that spends August learning its best combination. Hornchurch’s fixture list also marks genuinely new territory for the club.

Early friendlies have been tidy: goalless with Dagenham & Redbridge, 3-0 wins over Redbridge and Millwall Under-21s, then 1-1 with Norwich Under-21s. One goal conceded in four games is encouraging, although the strongest scheduled senior test had not arrived by the cutoff. It is a promising base, not a shortcut around the step-up question.

The wider structure reinforces our mid-table call. McMahon is aligned with ownership, senior executive appointments have been made, and redevelopment plans cover the pitch, clubhouse and academy infrastructure. Those plans remain subject to planning and phased delivery, so they are evidence of direction rather than finished advantage.

Fourteenth respects the climb without pretending two promotions make the next one easier. Hornchurch have enough retained goals, management clarity and imported know-how to avoid a season spent staring downwards. Asking for more immediately would underestimate the league they have worked so hard to reach.

A hundred points changes the mood of a summer. AFC Fylde are not creeping back into the National League hoping nobody notices; they return as North champions, with Craig Mahon still setting the terms after delivering the title in his first season. That continuity is the most persuasive part of their case, because promoted sides rarely arrive with both a proven idea and proof that the players can execute it over 46 games.

Mahon was appointed to bring expansive, energetic football, pressing high and keeping the ball. The rewards were emphatic. Corey Whelan, Alex Healy-Byrne and Jack Morris have since renewed, while Cedric Main, Kenzie Bentley, Dylan Allen-Hadley and the returning Adam Lewis add fresh options. James Keyworth’s arrival as director of football strengthens the sense of a club planning its next step rather than simply celebrating the last one. Mill Farm offers infrastructure worthy of this level too.

At this level, the same press will meet sides better equipped to play through it, so the execution cannot dip.

There is one blank space that should not be airbrushed. Fylde announced a retained list, but the accessible club page provides no player names, so no named departure can safely be claimed. That leaves the true balance of the squad harder to judge. The available evidence points towards a retained core, but not a complete turnover picture.

Against Blackpool, Hyde and Huddersfield Town, Fylde lost twice by a single goal and won 3-1 in between. They competed and scored against stronger visitors, yet three July friendlies are not the same examination as a winter National League schedule.

The caution comes from recent memory. Fylde were 18th here in 2023/24 and relegated in 23rd a year later. Mahon’s champions look better prepared than that side, but the step they must master is one the club has just found unforgiving.

Fylde should have enough managerial clarity, renewed players and infrastructure to make the return far more comfortable than their last National League season. We have them fifteenth. Their ceiling depends on the answer the summer evidence cannot yet give us: how much of the 100-point side is really still intact?

Paul Hurst did not inherit a calm Boston United in January. He inherited a side in trouble and had them safe with four games left, eventually finishing twelfth. That recovery is the strongest reason to resist judging this summer only by its headcount. Hurst knows the club, the level and the particular pressure of being asked to make a third spell feel fresh. Boston’s move to full-time football before last season gives him a sturdier platform than the one which began that campaign.

Still, ten signings are ten introductions. Gavan Holohan, Nicholas Pozo, Kai Mauro, Terrell Agyemang and the rest of the intake have to become a team while competitive points are available. Boston have kept useful pieces from the group that climbed away from danger, including Tom Cursons, Dylan Hill, Lenell John-Lewis and Arjan Raikhy, but captain Zak Mills leaves after 207 appearances. Frankie Maguire, Jordan Richards, Kieren Donnelly and Jacob Hazel have also moved on. Hurst’s assistant has changed too, with Luke Waterfall replacing Chris Doig.

That churn makes the early evidence hard to read. A narrow defeat to Lincoln was followed by a 2-1 win at Alfreton, although both Boston goals came from unnamed trialists. The behind-closed-doors Chesterfield fixture had no published result by the cutoff. Anyone claiming to see the finished article from that collection is peering through very foggy glass.

Off the pitch, there are signs of commitment rather than retreat. The club reported 890 season tickets sold by 10 July and continued work around the Jakemans Community Stadium. The South Stand was not expected to be ready for the opening league match, but that is a temporary operational nuisance, not a footballing crisis.

Boston’s trajectory since promotion has been quietly encouraging: nineteenth became twelfth once Hurst steadied matters. Why, then, only sixteenth? Because the proven recovery belongs to a squad that has changed significantly. Hurst should keep the Pilgrims clear of the ugliest scrap. Asking this many new parts to preserve last spring’s organisation immediately feels a stretch, so a modest step backwards is our call.

The manager is the strongest insurance against a deeper fall.

Solihull Moors have spent the summer trying to answer an awkward question: how does a club with real infrastructure, a proven manager and recognisable quality finish 14th twice in succession? The response has been activity rather than panic. Ten additions give Chris Millington a fuller version of the squad he inherited last October, but our forecast drops Moors to 17th because the established level still carries more weight than the promise.

The most reassuring moves are the familiar ones. Joe Sbarra has returned permanently after sharing last season’s golden boot with Conor Wilkinson. Alex Whitmore reversed his departure, while Junior Tiensia is back after time at Wealdstone. They know the ground, the standards and the league. Around them, Jamie Andrews brings 53 appearances from Woking’s improved campaign, Matty Carson arrives from Boston and younger players such as Justin Hanks and Ben Wodskou offer development value.

There is continuity underneath the rebuild. Twelve players were already contracted, including Wilkinson and players’ player Scott High. Jamey Osborne, Jacob Wakeling and Callum McFarlane remain part of a recognisable core. Ownership is clear and the senior structure at Damson Park looks settled. Millington, meanwhile, has two Halifax play-off finishes and an FA Trophy on his record, plus most of last season to understand what needed changing.

The doubts are about translation. Solihull went from the 2024 play-off final to consecutive 14th-place finishes. Re-signing popular former players can restore quality, but it does not guarantee the side escapes that gravitational pull. Laurie Walker’s exit and a reshaped defensive group add another integration task.

July produced one win, one draw and two defeats. Heavy rotation framed the loss at Knowle, Sbarra scored in a draw at Alvechurch, Championship Birmingham won comfortably and Hednesford were beaten 2-1. It is a subdued return, even if the context softens it.

There is enough here to make 17th feel harsh if the recruitment clicks. There is also not enough recent league evidence to place Moors above sides with clearer upward momentum. We expect safety, flashes of the old play-off quality and perhaps a late climb, but the summer must first prove it has changed the level rather than simply refreshed the names.

Kidderminster Harriers return to the National League carrying the glow of eight straight wins and the complication of a summer that changed almost everything around them. The 2-0 promotion-final victory at South Shields was controlled and convincing. Then manager Adam Murray left, both goalscorers returned to parent clubs and a long departure list forced Aggborough into a rapid rebuild.

Paul Wotton is therefore inheriting momentum, not continuity. His experience with Torquay and Truro makes him a sensible appointment, and the club moved early enough for him to shape the group. By 2 July he had 20 players available while still seeking several additions. That is a workable base, though a very different one from the side that won the play-offs.

The recruitment has genuine appeal. Lewis Walker brings consecutive double-figure National League seasons. Cian Harries and Olly Tipton know this level, Ben Crompton has sampled it with Tamworth, and Levi Amantchi offers another attacking route on loan from Gateshead. Zak Brown returns, while Callum Dolan, Max Brogan and Ethan Moore add energy across the side.

David Davis is the vital thread back to the promotion team. Seven league goals and Wotton’s description of him as integral on and off the pitch explain why his new deal matters. Josh Bishop, Seb Thompson and Samson Hewett also renewed. Yet eleven expired-contract exits, six loans ending and Emeka Obi’s transfer to Forest Green are impossible to minimise. Promotion-final scorers Kieren Donnelly and Charlie Cooper were among those loan departures.

Two 2-0 friendly wins were a neat early answer. Brogan scored and created at Droitwich; Crompton and debutant Amantchi struck at Halesowen. Clean sheets under a new manager are encouraging, but July games against lower-level opponents cannot prove the promoted defensive discipline has survived.

Eighteenth puts Harriers on the safe side of the line because the new squad contains enough quality and Aggborough remains an awkward visit. They also face the sharpest kind of Step 1 test: a new manager joining a substantially remodelled promotion side. Survival would be a good first season back. If Wotton forges the pieces quickly, the strong finish that brought them here gives them room to climb higher.

Altrincham’s problem is not a shortage of activity. It is the direction of travel. Fourth became ninth, ninth became thirteenth, and Neil Gibson now begins his first full season trying to stop a gentle slide from becoming something more uncomfortable. The club has backed that task with six recruits and a more professional football operation, including changes in physical performance and medical support. Those are sensible building blocks, but they arrive beside a late chief-executive departure and a summer in which several important shirts changed hands.

The attacking case is the brighter half of the picture. Charlie Kirk’s nine goals and seven assists last season survived the reset, Tom Crawford signed for two more years, and Eddy Jones, Matty Kosylo and captain Lewis Banks all renewed. Kristian Dennis, Aidan Barlow and Owen Evans bring Football League experience, while Liam Humbles and Jack Hinchy return with some knowledge of the place. There is enough craft and familiarity there to make Alty awkward, especially if Gibson can turn last season’s midstream stabilisation into a clearer identity.

Kirk’s production gives that plan a proven starting point rather than an attack built entirely on introductions.

Yet the exits matter. Ethan Ross has gone from goal, Isaac Marriott and Olly Crankshaw have moved to Barrow, and Tylor Golden has also left. Add released defenders and returning loanees and this is not a cosmetic refresh. The retained core may recognise the music, but several players must learn the steps quickly.

Preseason offered almost no reassurance either way. A 2-2 draw at Colwyn Bay was followed by an abandoned match at Wythenshawe and a cancellation at Vauxhall Motors. With only one completed game as of 20 July, grand conclusions would be theatre rather than analysis. The concerns have to be settled in August, not inferred from a broken July schedule.

We have Altrincham nineteenth because three years of declining finishes now meet a new full-season test for the manager and key defensive losses. The attacking talent offers a route well clear of trouble. Gibson’s job is to make that brighter version appear every week before the slide becomes the team’s identity.

Seventy-nine goals conceded is the number Sutton’s summer rebuild has to answer. Will Nightingale and Jordan Moore-Taylor add serious experience in defence, Jake Taylor wears the armband and Brandon Njoku remains after scoring 15 times last season. That spine should keep the U’s up. It does not yet erase a slide from League Two to 12th, then 19th, so our call is 20th.

Chris Agutter now gets the full preseason he did not have after arriving from Worthing in October. Seven senior additions give his team a different shape. Manny Osadebe and Omar Mussa broaden the midfield, Charlie Carter returns, Sam Folarin adds pace and Temi Babalola offers another attacking route. Alex Kirk’s extension matters too, ensuring the reset is not entirely detached from what came before.

It is still a reset in every meaningful sense. At least 14 players have completed departures, including a ten-man released group, while three more were made available for transfer rather than counted as gone. Sutton are asking the new leadership group to settle quickly and improve a side that conceded 79 league goals in 2025/26. Those experienced defensive arrivals are solutions to a real problem, not decorative extras.

The early matches have been mixed but reasonably useful. A ten-man Sutton drew 2-2 at AFC Totton, won 2-0 at Tonbridge and led League One AFC Wimbledon until the 86th minute before losing 2-1. One win, one draw and one defeat says little by itself. Staying competitive against Wimbledon offers the more encouraging detail, even in defeat.

There are positive signals around the wider club. Work at the VBS Community Stadium covered the pitch, dressing room, media room, public-address system and network, while the first team now trains there four days a week. That is practical investment. It gives Agutter a better daily environment, although facilities cannot remove the integration burden from a heavily changed squad.

The market sees Sutton as a mid-to-long promotion chance rather than a complete outsider. We are more concerned with the floor. The retained scorer, a stronger central defence and a manager finally able to shape his own summer should prevent another late scramble from becoming terminal. Yet the recent trajectory is too poor, and the churn too broad, to jump straight into mid-table confidence.

Twentieth is therefore cautious without being bleak. Sutton have assembled enough experience through the spine to survive. Their season turns on whether that spine supports a team before the old defensive anxieties return.

Gary Waddock’s 15-match rescue ended at Wembley rather than in a relegation fight. He now owns a full preseason, a two-and-a-half-year contract and a side that improved from 20th to 15th. That stability keeps the Stones just above our line, in 21st.

There is also firmer ground beneath the club. Nick Semaca became majority shareholder with 50.1 per cent while supporter ownership remained. The Grosvenor Vale lease now runs to May 2036, even as incentives encourage a move by 2031 and longer-term plans continue elsewhere in Hillingdon. These are meaningful institutional gains, not glamorous ones.

The playing picture is more delicate. Joe Newton, Kyle Smith, Jayden Harris and Aaron Henry are credible permanent additions, all with useful experience around this level. Captain Jack Cook stays, as do Deon Woodman, Micah Obiero and Dante Baptiste, the club’s published player-of-the-season award winners. Jack Wells-Morrison’s longer deal preserves another member of the side that started the FA Trophy final.

Four arrivals do not balance the entire ledger. Twelve loanees returned to parent clubs, Enzio Boldewijn joined Bath City, Anthony Georgiou left by mutual consent, and agreements were not reached with Dominic Hutchinson, Junior Tiensia, Nathan Tshikuna or Sean Adarkwa. That is a lot of attacking output and squad volume to replace. Wealdstone’s own share scheme also says proceeds feed Waddock’s playing budget and describes the club as part-time in a professional league. The constraint is explicit.

Preseason cannot help us choose a brighter reading. Fixtures against QPR Under-21s and Hemel Hempstead were confirmed by the cutoff, but direct official result pages were not recoverable. Both results remain unstated. Filling those blanks from a stray aggregation would create confidence the evidence does not earn.

Last season still offers a stubborn positive. Wealdstone survived with room to spare and drew the Wembley final 0-0 before Southend won the shoot-out. Waddock, retained leaders, new investment and the lease all support another resourceful campaign. The squad turnover explains why that case remains fragile.

Twenty-first is a narrow vote for know-how over scarcity. Wealdstone have enough structure and leadership to stay up again. They may need every bit of both.

By July, the EBB Stadium was almost the only familiar thing left at Aldershot. New controlling owner, new manager, eleven arrivals and a long list of exits: this is less a summer tune-up than a full reset after a 20th-place finish. That may be necessary, but it is also why we have the Shots in 22nd.

Scott Davies arrives with a clean preseason and the affection of supporters who remember his playing spells, yet this is his first campaign in this job. His recruitment has been brisk and wide-ranging. Marcus Dinanga offers recent EFL provenance, Nick Hayes supplies a senior goalkeeping option, and familiar faces from Slough sit within a group designed to refresh every line. The other side of that work is considerable: the departures include Will Nightingale, Josh Barrett and a dozen released players, so early-season fluency cannot be assumed.

There is a genuinely encouraging counterargument. Aldershot won four of their first five public friendlies, drew the other and conceded only once. A 2-0 win over Portsmouth catches the eye. So does the simple fact that a team which spent spring losing too often has begun summer looking difficult to score against. The sample needs care, though. Several opponents came from below National League level or were at a development stage. The Farnborough report is internally inconsistent: its headline and scoring chronology support 2-1, while its closing sentence gives 2-0. We use 2-1.

The longer view is harder to brighten. Eighth became 16th, then 20th. Deane Wood’s January takeover brought a new structure, but the club’s own season-ticket message still acknowledged financial challenges. Academy players Toby Nelson and Brody Peart provide a welcome thread of continuity, although two prospects cannot carry the burden of a wholesale senior rebuild.

Twenty-second is not a declaration that this work will fail. It is a judgement about how many uncertain things must go right together. Davies needs the new ownership to settle, the recruits to gel quickly and those friendly performances to survive contact with a much less forgiving fixture list. The early signs offer hope; the accumulated change keeps the Shots inside our relegation fight.

Eastleigh possess one of the division’s more uncomfortable contradictions. Their owner says close to £4 million has gone into the club over three years, including facilities and an upper-end playing budget, yet the league line has slipped from 13th to 13th to 17th. That gap between resource and return frames our prediction of 23rd.

Matt Gray is a credible reset appointment. He has taken Sutton into the EFL before and now has a full summer at the Silverlake Stadium. Seven recruits give him options across the pitch: Ibrahim Bakare and Nick Akoto bolster the defensive work, Jordan Cousins remains in a seasoned core, and Hady Ghandour, Will Randall and Max Dickov contribute to a changed attacking mix. Coby Killick’s first professional deal is a welcome home-grown note.

The churn is real, though. Eight players were released, seven loanees returned to their parent clubs, Sam Pearson left by mutual consent and Kieron Evans moved to Newport County. Gray is not adjusting a settled side. He is asking a new group to replace a lot of minutes and improve a team which finished only eight points above danger.

Preseason has not supplied early reassurance. Horsham won 3-2, Poole Town won 2-0 and Southampton won 3-1. The last of those came against Premier League opposition, so treating every defeat alike would be daft, but three losses and eight goals conceded remain a weak first signal. There is no need to turn July into a crisis; there is equally no evidence yet that the rebuild has clicked.

Off the pitch, Stewart Donald’s own account matters more than easy assumptions about a wealthy backer. He described low supporter-derived revenue and said his future funding position was under review. Season-ticket prices then rose because previous levels were no longer sustainable. Eastleigh have assets and investment, but their financial outlook is not a blank cheque.

The case for safety is that Gray knows this league, the facilities are strong and the squad still contains experience. The case against is cumulative: declining finishes, another managerial change, substantial turnover, public funding uncertainty and an unpromising July. We think only Gateshead carry a heavier bundle of unresolved risk. Twenty-third may look severe for a club with Eastleigh’s means, but means must become a functioning side before they can count in the table.

Gateshead’s escape last season was magnificent. It may also have disguised how much repair still lay ahead. A club once 11 points adrift survived in eighteenth, but the people now responsible for carrying that resilience forward include a first-time senior manager, a new first-team coach and, by the cutoff, just one confirmed external signing. That is an uncomfortable amount of faith to place in a recovery story that has already changed authors.

Lee Cattermole’s appointment is fascinating. His playing career and coaching work at Bristol Rovers, Burnley, Middlesbrough and with the Northern Irish FA give him a strong football education. None of it tells us how he will handle the relentless decisions of a National League season. Cattermole himself said the identity he wants will take time. Gateshead may not have much spare.

There is a core worth protecting. Dom Telford, Keaton Ward, Pete Jameson and Callum Bone remain among the contracted players, while several younger names signed extensions. Long-serving first-team coach Ben Clark also provides a bridge from the survival run. That shared memory of the escape is valuable when doubt returns. Preseason has supplied some fun: a 6-0 win at Blyth Town, then scoring draws with Heaton Stannington and Hebburn Town. Ten goals and no defeat is better than the opposite, even against lower-level opposition.

The harder list is the outgoing one. Louis Storey declined new terms; Jacob Butterfield, Joe Grayson, Kenton Richardson, Brad Nicholson and Will McGowan are among the senior exits. Tommy Lavery, signed from Sunderland, stood alone as the confirmed external arrival. Around that imbalance sit regulatory uncertainty over prospective joint owner Stephen Paylor and an interim-chairman transition after Bernard McWilliams stepped down for health reasons.

We have Gateshead twenty-fourth because the concern is basic: depth, settled authority and proven management. Cattermole may become an excellent manager, and last season showed this club can fight from a grim position. The prediction is not a verdict on his potential. It is an honest reading of the thinnest confirmed recruitment in the division beside simultaneous football and governance change.

Survival will require the old resilience to outlast all of that new uncertainty.